
A US federal judge questioned the 19% countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate imports imposed by the ITC, during a hearing on OCP North America's appeal. MAP and DAP prices are running 47-55% above a year ago, though both eased about $16/t in the latest week.
A ruling that loosens the Moroccan duties could bring more phosphate supply into the US market and ease DAP and MAP costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.