The Australian dollar fell as Fed Chair Powell said rate hikes could cause a recession, prompting risk-off trading and lower US Treasury yields. WTI crude dropped nearly 4% to its lowest since early May, while Australia's June flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.8.
Recession fears and a 4% crude oil drop reduce energy-linked costs and demand expectations, weighing on feed and biofuel-linked commodity prices.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.