
The International Grains Council put Canada's 2022-23 grain production at 60.8 million tonnes, with wheat at 31.6 million, up sharply from the prior year. Wheat exports are forecast at 22.8 million tonnes as Canada seeks to fill the gap left by the Ukraine conflict.
Large Canadian exports partly offset reduced Black Sea supply, which is bearish for wheat prices, while high input costs squeeze farm margins.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.