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Reuters reports that India's GAIL is rationing gas after a former Gazprom unit cut supplies. The reduced gas supply will affect India's urea production, and a sustained cut would increase fertiliser imports.
Lower Indian gas supply cuts domestic urea output and would boost import demand, supporting global urea prices.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.