
Cyclone Arnab damaged more than 70 thousand hectares of rice in Andhra Pradesh, and unseasonal rain in central India, notably Chhattisgarh, is delaying harvests. Indian 5% parboiled rose to $375/t FOB Kakinada, and 2026/27 production is forecast down 5% to 146 million tonnes.
Crop losses and harvest delays reduce new-crop Indian supply, supporting domestic and export rice prices and tightening the Asian market.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.