Oil rises 4% on supply threats, still set for weekly drop

After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2025Oil prices rise for second consecutive week on expected tighter supply-14.2%
• Jan 4, 2019Oil set for biggest weekly gain since 2016 on Saudi supply cut+11.9%
• Oct 5, 2022Oil rises to 3-week highs as OPEC+ agrees to deep cuts, U.S. stockpiles fall | Reuters+2.1%
• Jun 4, 2023Oil rises on Saudi plan to deepen output cuts from July | Reuters-1.7%
• Aug 31, 2023Russia promises to unveil new OPEC+ supply cut deal next week | Reuters+5.7%

After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2025Oil prices rise for second consecutive week on expected tighter supply-15.1%
• Jan 4, 2019Oil set for biggest weekly gain since 2016 on Saudi supply cut+11.7%
• Oct 5, 2022Oil rises to 3-week highs as OPEC+ agrees to deep cuts, U.S. stockpiles fall | Reuters+3.3%
• Jun 4, 2023Oil rises on Saudi plan to deepen output cuts from July | Reuters-2.2%
• Aug 31, 2023Russia promises to unveil new OPEC+ supply cut deal next week | Reuters+6.4%