
Western Canadian wheat bids rose during the week ended September 22, driven by a 75 basis point Fed hike and a dollar index above 111, along with Putin's partial mobilization announcement. The IGC raised its 2022-23 world wheat production estimate 14 million tonnes to a record 792 million.
Canadian spring wheat prices rose $27-32 per tonne.
A stronger dollar tends to weigh on US export competitiveness, while concerns over the Black Sea deal and a record world crop provide offsetting forces on wheat prices.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.