
Statistics Canada reported farmers will harvest 19.1 million tonnes of canola, down from its August estimate of 19.5 million and below the trade expectation of 19.9 million. Canadian wheat output was slightly larger, the third-largest on record.
A smaller-than-expected Canadian canola crop tightens seed supply for crushers and supports canola meal and oil prices, while the larger wheat crop adds modest bearish pressure on wheat.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.