
Bloomberg reports that New York Harbor diesel has reached its highest premium over Nymex futures in five months, at 75 cents a gallon, because seasonal inventories are at record lows. East Coast suppliers are taking physical delivery of Nymex contracts to restock, instead of paying the spot premium.
Record-low inventories ahead of winter heating demand keep diesel supply tight and costly for feed haulage. Traders diverting physical supply signals the premium may persist.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.