Brazil's real rose as much as 1.8% to a four-week high of 5.087 per dollar after the Bolsonaro administration said it would begin the transition to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government. Colombia's peso hit a record low amid uncertainty over economic policy.
A stronger real reduces the cost of Brazilian exports in dollars and can slow Brazilian soybean and corn export selling at the margin, while political clarity supports Brazilian asset prices. The Colombian peso weakness raises import costs for feed buyers in Colombia.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.