
The average US retail pork price reached a record $5.047 per pound in October, up 23.1 cents from a year earlier. Live hog prices for October averaged $67.78/cwt, well below the July 2014 record, and USDA forecasts a 2022 live hog average of $71.33/cwt.
Retail records reflect inflation rather than tight supply, and with seasonal price trends lower and weakening domestic demand, the outlook for hog prices and feed demand is modestly bearish.
After 37 past macro events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.