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Rabobank's 2022/23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast had national output near a record 61.9 million tonnes, but record October rainfall, especially in Victoria and NSW, is changing the outlook. Queensland and NSW face yield and quality downgrades, while above-average rain is forecast for the Mallee.
Flooding and quality downgrades in the east can cut milling and feed grain supply, which supports prices. Strong yields in the Mallee and Wimmera partly offset this, so the net effect on wheat and barley prices is mixed.
theguardian.com.auNov 5, 2022After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
