
The EIA's December Short-Term Energy Outlook expects the Henry Hub spot price to fall from $7.99/MMBtu in the third quarter to $5.82 in the fourth quarter, then rise to above $6 in the first quarter of 2023. It forecasts an average of $5.43/MMBtu for 2023, with volatility risk noted.
The forecast signals softer US gas costs through 2023 after a winter bump, which lowers energy and fertilizer input costs for feed producers.
After 62 past bearish report events, Natural Gas moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.