
Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday as Indonesia prepared to tighten export rules from January 1, allowing fewer shipments abroad per tonne sold domestically. The benchmark March contract still ended 2022 down 11% for the year after three years of gains.
Tighter Indonesian export ratios reduce global palm supply and support vegetable oil prices, which tends to lift soyoil and meal-linked values. Weak annual performance and forecasts of lower 2023 prices limit the upside.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.