
Analysts at Manulife Asset Management expect a weaker US dollar later in 2023 to draw foreign investment into emerging markets including Indonesia. They also expect Indonesian inflation to cool as food prices stabilize and the fuel subsidy cut is absorbed, reducing pressure on Bank Indonesia to hike rates.
A weaker dollar would generally support emerging-market currencies and lower dollar-denominated input costs for Indonesian importers, while easing food inflation would reduce pressure on the rupiah and rates.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.