
OilPrice.com reports that OPEC has expanded its control over oil markets as U.S. shale growth slows. Analysts expect U.S. shale to add only about 500,000 barrels a day in 2023, with labor shortages, capital discipline and high interest rates constraining output.
With shale growth slowing and OPEC regaining its swing role, supply is less elastic, which supports crude prices and the energy costs that feed producers face.
After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.