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The EIA lowered its Q1 2023 Henry Hub forecast by $1.18 to $4.99/MMBtu and its 2023 average to $4.90. It raised its 2023 US marketed gas production estimate by 2.36 Bcf/d, with record output expected in 2023 and 2024.
Higher projected output and lower prices point to softer natural gas costs, which can ease fertilizer and processing expenses for feed makers.
After 62 past bearish report events, NATGAS moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.