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The EIA's January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Henry Hub spot gas averaging $4.90/MMBtu in 2023, over $1.50 below 2022, and roughly flat in 2024. Record production growth is expected to outpace demand and exports, though Q1 2023 prices may near $5 on winter demand and the return of Freeport LNG.
Lower projected gas prices reduce energy and nitrogen fertilizer costs, supporting lower processing and input costs for feed; the Freeport restart is a near-term upside risk.
eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov)Feb 1, 2023After 62 past bearish report events, NATGAS moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
