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Brazilian rough rice traded at BRL 90.84 per 50 kg bag on January 3, up 45% from a year earlier. Cepea expects Brazil's lowest rice crop in 21 years due to dry weather in the south and reduced planting area.
A projected small Brazilian crop tightens regional supply and supports rice prices, while importers may need to source more abroad.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.