
ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane delivered an interim assessment of the euro area's rate hiking cycle at the NIESR in London. He reviewed the projected effects of tightening on the financial system, economy and inflation, noting long lags in transmission.
The analysis reinforces that rate hikes will continue to work through the economy with lags, a background factor for euro strength and dollar-priced commodities.
After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.