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UBS analysts say emerging-market currencies, including the rupee, yuan and peso, could weaken by as much as 5% if the Fed lifts rates to 6%. The note treats that rate level as a historical pain threshold for emerging markets.
Sharp EM currency weakness would raise import costs for feed-buying countries and could dampen demand. The scenario is hypothetical and not yet priced.
reuters.comRodrigo CamposMar 9, 2023After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
