Euro rally puts $1.10 in sight with ECB now last hawk standing

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2025Euro Heads for Highest in Four Years With $1.20 Level in Sight-0.5%
• Sep 2, 2021Inflation shock and ECB hawks keep euro near 1-month high | Reuters-0.2%
• May 19, 2019Euro Climbs Higher as ECB pushes back Interest Rate deadline; - BBC Money+0.3%
• Aug 27, 2020Euro-Dollar Can Pass 1.20 withouth Drawing ECB Ire says Goldmans+0.2%
• Jun 27, 2025Dollar hovers near 3-1/2-year low with market focus on US rate cuts, euro area inflation+0.3%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2025Euro Heads for Highest in Four Years With $1.20 Level in Sight+0.3%
• Sep 2, 2021Inflation shock and ECB hawks keep euro near 1-month high | Reuters+0.2%
• May 19, 2019Euro Climbs Higher as ECB pushes back Interest Rate deadline; - BBC Money-0.3%
• Aug 29, 2025Yuan hits fresh 10-month high on firm PBOC fixing, stock market rally — TradingView News-0.1%
• Dec 29, 2025Rand set for biggest gain in 16 years on SA stability - Moneyweb+0.1%