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US distillate inventories climbed to within the five-year average for the first time in over a year, reaching 116.7 million barrels in the week ending March 24. Production fell 9.1% year over year, while truck freight ton-miles were down about 2%.
Rebuilt diesel stocks and weak freight demand point to softer diesel prices and lower trucking costs, though a sustained production drop could limit the decline.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.