
CZ analysis says Argentina's soybean crop is collapsing, with USDA cutting its forecast to 33 million tonnes and private estimates near 25 million, down from 51 million earlier. Brazil's large crop is expected to offset the shortfall.
A roughly halved Argentine crop removes a major supplier of soymeal and soy oil, tightening global protein meal supplies and supporting meal prices into the second half of the year.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.