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Trase analysis finds that soy traders face more EU regulatory exposure from conversion of Brazilian savannah and grassland than from forest clearing. Only 17% of recent soy expansion into natural habitats was into forests.
The EU is due to consider broadening the regulation to other wooded lands by September 2024 and to grasslands by September 2025.
If the EU broadens its scope to Cerrado and Pampa land, a larger share of Brazilian soy could face compliance costs or exclusion from EU markets. That could shift soy flows and support EU-compliant soy premiums.
trase.earthMark Titley, Tiago ReisMar 21, 2023After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
