
Trase research finds that in 2020, 16% of soy from the Amazon and Cerrado was grown on farms not complying with Brazil's Forest Code, with another 58% showing possible breaches. Most of the affected soy went to China and the EU, and official data is limited, which makes verification difficult.
Verification gaps could slow Brazilian soy shipments to the EU and raise compliance costs, which could tighten supply to Europe and firm premiums for certified origins.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.