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Ukrainian grain flows through the Black Sea corridor rose in the week of March 13-19, with March daily average flows about 11% above February and shipment sizes nearing record levels. Market sources expect the Black Sea Grain Initiative extension to last 60 days rather than the previous 120, and the UN says the duration remains uncertain.
Higher corridor volumes add to near-term wheat, corn and barley supply and support Black Sea freight demand, but the shorter 60-day extension raises risk of supply disruption later in the year, which supports prices.
spglobal.comMar 20, 2023After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rising Ukrainian corridor flows and confirmed safe passage on March 20 point to ample export supply, which is bearish for wheat.
