USDA confirmed export sales of corn and soybeans to unknown destinations, which analysts believe are likely China. Analysts said USDA's March 31 reports showed tighter-than-expected old crop stocks, and that continued Chinese buying could tighten supplies while a halt could push prices lower.
Chinese import demand is the key swing factor for US old crop corn and soybean stocks. Continued buying supports prices, while a stop would likely trigger a sell-off.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.