
USDA's Annual Summary showed U.S. milk production rose only 0.1% in 2022 while farm milk receipts climbed 37% to an average of $25.39 per hundredweight. RaboResearch says dairy prices have fallen sharply since, with May Class III around $16, well below production costs.
Weak milk prices and tight margins can prompt culling and slow herd growth, which reduces future demand for feed and affects dairy-linked protein meal demand. Analysts expect a recovery in the second half of the year.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.