
Structural changes driven by North American biofuel policy have increased global canola demand and shifted export flows. Canada is expected to have four million tonnes of canola crushing capacity online by early 2024, with Louis Dreyfus, Richardson, Cargill and Viterra expanding crush plants.
More domestic Canadian crushing reduces canola seed exports and increases meal and oil output, which tightens seed availability for importers and adds meal supply to the market.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.