A detailed analysis of the 2022 avian influenza epidemic in the US finds it occurred in two separate waves with different spatial patterns. Forty-five layer farms were hit, with the highest bird losses between calendar weeks 11 and 17.
Understanding the scale and timing of layer losses helps explain the egg supply shock and the subsequent recovery in flock numbers, which affects poultry feed demand outlook.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.