
USDA lowered its 2023 US milk production estimate by 200 million pounds to 228.4 billion, citing slower growth in milk per cow, and kept 2024 production at 230.8 billion pounds. Forecast cheese and nonfat dry milk prices were revised for 2023, while butter was raised 50 cents to $2.435/lb.
A smaller 2023 milk output forecast modestly tightens dairy supply, which could support dairy prices and eventually feed demand.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.