
Growers reportedly planted a near-record 23.5 million hectares for winter 2023-24 despite rising interest rates. ABARES forecasts winter crop output of 44.9 million tonnes, down 34%, citing below-average rainfall outlook for winter and spring.
Large planted area partly offsets yield risk, but a 34% production drop still tightens Australian export supply and supports grain prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.