
CoBank's report says farrow-to-finish returns have fallen 66% since 2018 to $7.30 per head, discouraging expansion. Soft domestic and export demand, along with elevated retail prices, are compounding pressure on producers, and USDA data showed June 1 hog supplies roughly unchanged from a year earlier.
Stagnant hog supply and weak demand leave pork prices supported, while limited herd growth keeps feed demand from expanding.
After 61 past neutral report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.8%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.