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Extreme heat in Europe has damaged EU crop yields, though the EU Commission still forecasts 2023-24 cereals output at 278m tonnes, up 5%. Russia's suspension of the Black Sea grain deal and cuts to global production estimates gave wheat markets short-term support, with Paris milling wheat futures up €2.25/t on the week.
Heat-related yield losses in the EU and the Black Sea deal suspension tighten wheat export supply and lift prices for feed wheat buyers.
fwi.co.ukCharlie ReeveJul 18, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
