
China's sow herd rose for the first time this year in June, up 0.9% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, per the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Market sources say China has bought October-delivery soybeans from Brazil, and China's soybean crush rose 5.2% week-on-week in recent weeks.
A rebound in hog numbers and crush would lift soymeal demand, supporting soybean and soymeal prices, though the hog recovery is still slow and sustained demand is unproven.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.