
The dollar slid from a 12-week peak on Monday as traders weighed central bank options after the Jackson Hole meeting. The dollar index edged 0.08 lower to 104.08, though it was up more than 2% in August.
Markets priced an 80% chance of a Fed pause next month and a 51% chance of a November hike, up from 33% a week earlier.
Rising odds of a November Fed hike support the dollar, which can pressure dollar-priced feed commodity prices. Strong U.S. data has eased recession worries and keeps this dynamic in play.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.