
An opinion piece warns that the Russia-Ukraine war, the Strait of Hormuz blockade and heatwaves could create a global grain shortage that peaks next year. It adds that an intense El Niño could bring extremely dry conditions to key farming regions.
Expected losses in major grain exporters and possible El Niño drought would tighten wheat and corn supplies and support prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.