
Australian Crop Forecasters puts the national wheat crop at 27.9 million tonnes, slightly above average but likely to be trimmed due to dry conditions in northern NSW, western Australia and hot weather in Queensland. The Australian Oilseeds Federation forecasts canola at 5.59 million tonnes, down 29% from last year's record but 35% above the 10-year average.
Expected cuts to Australian wheat and a sharply smaller canola crop tighten supplies for export markets, supporting wheat and canola meal prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.