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USDA's Economic Research Service reports US hard red winter wheat exports are forecast at the lowest level since records began in 1973/74. The agency attributes this to drought, falling US acreage and uncompetitive pricing against Russia and the EU.
Loss of export competitiveness keeps US HRW supplies in the domestic market and weighs on KC wheat values.
After 82 past bearish trade events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.