An average of forecaster estimates puts Australia's 2023-24 wheat crop at 26.1 million tonnes, down 4% from the prior 27.15Mt, as harvest reaches about 20% of winter cropping area. Barley estimates rose 3% to 10.82Mt on rain and milder conditions in higher-latitude areas.
A smaller Australian wheat crop tightens export supply and supports local and global wheat prices, while a larger barley estimate eases the feed grain outlook somewhat.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.