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The dollar fell to a 3-1/2-month low and was on track for its biggest monthly drop in a year. Traders were pricing in a 33% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, rising toward 65% by a later date, as growth in the US appeared to be slowing.
A weaker dollar supports US dollar-denominated commodity prices and makes US exports more competitive abroad. Expectations of looser Fed policy add to that support.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.