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Goldman Sachs expects the Australian dollar to fall on strong US jobs data, after US unemployment fell to 3.7% in November. The analysis argues the US economy will outperform consensus and that markets are pricing too many early rate cuts.
A firmer US dollar outlook would pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices and reduce the appeal of Australian-linked trade, so the view matters for feed price direction if it proves correct.
macrobusiness.com.auHouses, HolesDec 10, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
