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USDA's December WASDE again lowered its 2023 and 2024 US milk production forecasts, citing slower milk per cow growth and fewer milk cows. The report also cut cheese and butter price forecasts for 2023 while raising the nonfat dry milk price.
Lower production forecasts tighten milk supply and support Class III and IV prices, but lower cheese and butter price forecasts offset part of that support.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.