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Commentary defends India's rice export restrictions, which began with a broken rice ban in September 2022 and a non-basmati white rice ban in July 2023. Weak monsoon rains and El Niño cut output, and India now holds about 40% of world rice exports.
India's large export share means its continued restrictions keep world rice prices supported and importers short of supply.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.