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Egyptian producers committed over 100,000 tonnes of granular and prilled urea in about 48 hours, with prices rising more than $30/t fob. Demand came from traders covering earlier Turkish sales and modest European interest.
Short covering and nearby demand lifted Egyptian urea sharply after a bearish Q4, signaling a firmer global urea floor heading into early 2024 shipments.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.