US soybean stocks have stayed steady while global stocks have grown, and the January WASDE raised US carryout by 35 million bushels. South American crops, with Argentina expected to double and Brazil near record, are set to outpace world demand.
Brazil's early export flows during the US sales window threaten US soybean export demand, pressuring soybean and meal prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.