
Indian rice exporters expect 2024 to be a challenging year with policy uncertainty and high local prices. Restrictions, including the ban on non-basmati white rice and a 20% duty on parboiled rice, are expected to remain at least into the first half of 2024.
USDA projects Indian rice output for 2023/24 at 128 million mt, down from 135.5 million mt.
Expected extended restrictions and lower Indian production tighten global rice supply, supporting prices. Buyers should expect continued high rice costs through at least mid-2024.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.