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The dollar drifted lower after US consumer prices rose 3.1% year on year in January, above the expected 2.9%. Futures priced no rate cut in March and roughly an 80% chance of easing at the June meeting.
Hotter inflation pushes back rate cuts, which tends to support the dollar and weigh on dollar-priced commodities. The shift in expected timing of cuts is the key link to commodity prices.
reuters.comGertrude Chavez-DreyfussFeb 14, 2024After 359 past neutral macro events, DXY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
