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Indonesia's January drought is expected to lower its rice harvest and raise imports. Rice prices are already near their highest since 2008 amid lower output in Thailand, Vietnam and India.
Lower Indonesian output means more import demand on an already tight world market, supporting higher rice prices.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.